Zeekr’s market hype is noteworthy and may indicate that investors see value in the high-quality, low-price offerings of Chinese automakers.
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This year already proved that startups are willing to go public in a less-than-ideal market — and get rewarded for it, too. But bankers, lawyers and investors said the recent IPO successes aren’t enough to foster more than a dozen tech IPOs this year.
“I don’t think we will have the floodgates open like I might have thought,” Greg Martin, co-founder and managing director at Rainmaker Securities, told TechCrunch. “The trickle was delayed; I thought it would happen sooner in Q1. Because of that, I think the floodgates can’t open til 2025, but we could have a healthy flow of 10 to 15 companies for the year.”
Jeremy Glaser, a lawyer and co-chair of Mintz’s venture capital and emerging companies practice, said that despite how the recent IPOs have performed thus far, people need more data than just a few weeks, or a month, of trading to feel confident.
Looking at how Klaviyo and Instacart are performing today shows why people remain cautious. Klaviyo is currently trading at a $5.94 billion market cap, down from its $9.2 billion IPO price. Instacart is faring better, but still trading under its initial IPO price of $9.9 billion. It’s currently trading at $9.47 billion.
“I’ve lived through a lot of IPO cycles, you really do need an extended period of time where you are seeing multiple IPOs staying above the IPO price,” Glaser said. “I don’t know if we are there yet. We have some positive signs but we need to see more companies staying above the IPO price for an extended amount of time.”
Timing plays a big factor here, too, due to the election. If a couple of companies had come out and made their public debuts at the beginning of the year — and had they done well — it might have given other companies enough time and confidence to get through a full S-1 process before the election. But due to the timing of the recent IPOs, companies would be crunched for time.
Martin added that despite the successes, he’s not sure this is really a good market to go out in anyway. Interest rates aren’t being cut the way many predicted and were hoping for this year, and Martin isn’t convinced that the economy is fully in the clear yet after 2022’s bear market — especially with uncertainty about how the markets will react after the election in November.
“I still feel like recession is not out of the woods yet,” Martin said. “We had, what, 1% growth in Q1? Mostly macro economic factors, it feels like the market is sensing relative stability right now but there [are] a lot of things that could turn that. I’m hopeful [the market] remains stable. I’m remaining optimistic at this point.”
The sentiment from Glaser and Martin seems to align with what other folks in the market are saying, too. A top-tier venture fund recently told TechCrunch that it was advising all of its portfolio companies that could potentially IPO to wait until next year. Colin Stewart, Morgan Stanley’s global head of technology equity markets, recently told CNBC that he thinks 10 to 15 companies could go public this year — right in line with Martin’s prediction — and that 2025 will be better.
Investors weren’t sure what to think about the IPO market heading into 2024. Some thought that activity would start to pick back up while others thought it would be another quiet year, according to a TechCrunch survey. The one thing they all seemed to agree on was that any rise in activity wasn’t likely until the second half of the year.
But then Astera Labs filed to go public in February, and Reddit followed shortly after. Ibotta was next in March, followed by Rubrik just a week later. All four have since floated and popped on their first day of trading. While the respective stocks retreated since then, they are all currently trading above their IPO prices — which were all priced above their initial target ranges.
Watching these four stocks hit the market successfully makes us wonder: Were investors wrong about the timeline of the return of IPOs? But based on sentiment from folks like Martin and Glaser, probably not.
This means that VCs likely have to wait another year for the IPO market to be a meaningful source of liquidity. However, exits aren’t fully off the table this year. Glaser said that he isn’t working on IPOs, but his M&A practice has been the busiest it’s been in a long time. For investors looking for returns this year, that’s good news.
Rubrik shares hit the New York Stock Exchange Thursday debuting at $38 a share. The cybersecurity company priced it shares at $32 apiece Wednesday night, just a hair over its initial target range of $29 to $31 after raising $752 million. This share price gives Rubrik a fully diluted valuation of $6.6 billion, up 88% from its last primary valuation of $3.5 billion in 2019.
Rubrik sells cloud-based security software to enterprise customers and has 1,700 customers with contracts worth more than $100,000 and 100 customers who pay the company more than $1 million a year. The Silicon Valley startup was founded in 2014 and has raised more than $550 million in venture capital, according to Crunchbase data.
The VCs hoping the most that Rubrik’s stock keeps climbing are Lightspeed and Greylock. Lightspeed backed the company in five separate rounds, including leading the company’s Series A round back in 2015. Lightspeed, and those affiliated with it, own 23.9% of Rubrik’s shares prior to the IPO, according the company’s S-1 filing. The firms’ conviction in the company might come from the fact that Rubrik co-founder and CEO, Bipul Sinha, was formerly a partner at Lightspeed from 2010 to 2014. Sinha owns 7.6% of shares.
Greylock holds 12.2% of Rubrik’s shares. The venture firm led the startup’s $41 million Series B round in 2016 and participated in the Series C and Series D rounds as well. Greylock partner Asheem Chandna has sat on the company’s board since 2015.
In addition to Sinha, Rubrik’s other two co-founders hold notable stakes. Arvind Jain, a co-founder who is now the CEO of AI work assistant startup Glean, holds a 7% stake. Arvind Nithrakashyap, co-founder and current Rubrik CTO, holds 6.7%.
Other big-name VCs backed the company, too. Khosla Ventures led Rubrik’s Series C round in 2016; IVP led the company’s Series D round in 2017; and Bain Capital Ventures led the company’s Series E round in 2019. It’s unclear what percentage of shares these firms still own, but it’s under 5%, as none of these investors were named in the company’s S-1. NBA All-Star Kevin Durant’s Thirty Five Ventures was also an investor.
The results of Rubrik’s IPO are under more scrutiny than some of the other recent public listings, because Rubrik’s debut looks more like a 2021 IPO and less like the other 2024 IPOs. Ibotta debuted as a profitable company. Astera Labs and Reddit both had recently swung to a GAAP net profit. Rubrik, however, is as an unprofitable business seeing its losses continue to grow, not shrink.
The company reported that its revenue grew a little under 5% from its fiscal 2023 year to its fiscal 2024 year, growing from $599.8 million to $627.9 million. At the same time, the company’s losses continued to grow: Its net losses grew from 46% in its fiscal 2023 to 56% in its fiscal 2024 year.
The company’s metrics do have a bright spot, however: subscription revenue. In the company’s most recent fiscal quarter, subscriptions made up 91% of the revenue, up from 73% a year prior. Subscription revenue tends to be sticky, and growth there could explain why some investors are more confident about the future prospects of Rubrik despite its current losses and lack of profitability.
Rubrik is the fourth venture-backed company to go public in recent months as investors seem eager to reopen the IPO market. All three companies that went before Rubrik — Ibotta, Reddit and Astera Labs — popped on the first day of trading and have all since settled, some in better positions than others. But none has been a disaster or negative omen for other potential IPOs this year.
While four positive IPO debuts could spark more companies to come off of the sidelines, the current guidance that interest rate cuts may not come as early in 2024 as many had predicted may put a damper on the the IPO market’s recent momentum.
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